ABSTRACT
Purpose@#Predicting human papillomavirus (HPV) status is critical in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) radiomics. In this study, we developed a model for HPV status prediction using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics and18F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) parameters in patients withOPSCC. @*Materials and Methods@#Patients with OPSCC who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT and contrast-enhanced MRI before treatment between January 2012 and February 2020 were enrolled. Training and test sets (3:2) were randomly selected. 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters and MRI radiomics feature were extracted. We developed three light-gradient boosting machine prediction models using the training set: Model 1, MRI radiomics features; Model 2, 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters; and Model 3, combination of MRI radiomics features and 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to analyze the performance of the models in predicting HPV status in the test set. @*Results@#A total of 126 patients (118 male and 8 female; mean age: 60 years) were included. Of these, 103 patients (81.7%) were HPV-positive, and 23 patients (18.3%) were HPV-negative. AUROC values in the test set were 0.762 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.564–0.959], 0.638 (95% CI, 0.404–0.871), and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.668–0.978) for Models 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The net reclassification improvement of Model 3, compared with that of Model 1, in the test set was 0.119. @*Conclusion@#When combined with an MRI radiomics model, 18F-FDG PET/CT exhibits incremental value in predicting HPV status in patients with OPSCC.
ABSTRACT
Objective@#To develop and test a machine learning model for classifying human papillomavirus (HPV) status of patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) using 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 F-FDG) PET-derived parameters in derived parameters and an appropriate combination of machine learning methods in patients with OPSCC. @*Materials and Methods@#This retrospective study enrolled 126 patients (118 male; mean age, 60 years) with newly diagnosed, pathologically confirmed OPSCC, that underwent 18 F-FDG PET-computed tomography (CT) between January 2012 and February 2020. Patients were randomly assigned to training and internal validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. An external test set of 19 patients (16 male; mean age, 65.3 years) was recruited sequentially from two other tertiary hospitals. Model 1 used only PET parameters, Model 2 used only clinical features, and Model 3 used both PET and clinical parameters. Multiple feature transforms, feature selection, oversampling, and training models are all investigated. The external test set was used to test the three models that performed best in the internal validation set. The values for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were compared between models. @*Results@#In the external test set, ExtraTrees-based Model 3, which uses two PET-derived parameters and three clinical features, with a combination of MinMaxScaler, mutual information selection, and adaptive synthetic sampling approach, showed the best performance (AUC = 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.46–1). Model 3 outperformed Model 1 using PET parameters alone (AUC = 0.48, p = 0.047) and Model 2 using clinical parameters alone (AUC = 0.52, p = 0.142) in predicting HPV status. @*Conclusion@#Using oversampling and mutual information selection, an ExtraTree-based HPV status classifier was developed by combining metabolic parameters derived from 18 F-FDG PET/CT and clinical parameters in OPSCC, which exhibited higher performance than the models using either PET or clinical parameters alone.